The Bitcoin (BTC) metric that nailed the pit of the 2022 bear market says its uptrend is still intact.
In an X post on Aug. 22, creator of on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin shared some good news in the form of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL).
Analyst: “New money” flowing into Bitcoin in 2023
While last week’s 10% BTC price dip has upended some of the on-chain landscape, RHODL is one of the metrics taking a longer-term view of what remains a timely bull market.
The metric takes existing HODL Waves data, which groups the BTC supply by when each coin or, specifically, unspent transaction outputs, last moved, and weights it by realized price — i.e., the price at which it last moved.
If this sounds complicated, the results have clear implications.
“Peaks in younger age bands highlight periods where they have a proportionally higher Realized Value weighting relative to the older Realized Value age bands,” Philip Swift explained in an introduction on LookIntoBitcoin.
“This is important to note as it indicates that the market is prepared to pay higher values for bitcoin today and in recent times, versus historical norms. This can be a good indicator that the market is becoming overheated.”
Currently, bands of coins that last moved three to six months ago are rising — a phenomenon common to the start of Bitcoin’s previous bull markets.
On the topic of the August drawdown on BTC/USD, Swift thus concluded that “the recent price dip is in the context of a much bigger bull trend.”
“3–6 month band trending up as new money comes back into the market = new bull cycle,” he summarized.
Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X
Charting the return of BTC price “euphoria”
RHODL has an impressive record when it comes to BTC price phases.
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In December 2022, when BTC/USD was circling its two-year lows of $15,600, Swift used the metric to call the end of “euphoria” among Bitcoin’s speculative investor cohort, which he labeled “tourists.”
He stated at the time that the market is likely now at cycle lows, which means maximum risk-reward opportunity.
Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart from December 2022. Source: LookIntoBitcoin
Beginning in January this year, Bitcoin began a new uptrend that delivered 70% gains in Q1 alone.
Since then, investor composition has changed, with short-term holders (STHs) — entities holding BTC for 155 days or less — reducing their overall exposure to their lowest since November 2021.
The latest dip nonetheless increased pressure on those remaining speculators, with almost 90% of STH coins now held at an unrealized loss.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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