Bitcoin (BTC) bulls lost their grip on $27,000 into Sept. 30 as the monthly and quarterly close loomed large.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin braces for three key candle closes
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a cooling off for BTC price action ahead of the key September candle print.
The largest cryptocurrency remained up nearly 4% month-to-date, marking its most successful September since 2016, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Conversely, the quarterly performance for Q3 showed BTC/USD down 11.5% at the time of writing.
BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
For traders and analysts, everything could change in the final hours of the monthly candle.
“In the past, a green September resulted in a green October, November and December as well,” popular trader Jelle noted in part of the day’s X analysis.
“Will history repeat?”
The day prior, Jelle predicted better conditions for Q4, including a breakout past $30,000 for the first time since early August.
After months of accumulating coins, and slowly preparing us for the bull market, I think its time.
Expecting Q4 to bring new strength — and a break of $30k.
Send it.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/vkl0aq5hRS
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) September 29, 2023
“Textbook bearish technicals”
Meanwhile, Monitlonger and shorter timeframes.
Related: Bitcoin halving to raise ‘efficient’ BTC mining costs to $30K
Beyond the monthly and weekly close, the impending United States government shutdown should continue to suppress BTC price action unless a solution is found in time, it added.
We are heading into the last #trading day of the month with textbook bearish Technicals from the Key Moving Averages on Daily, Weekly and Monthly TFs and #TrendPrecognition is flashing a new #TradingSignals on the #BTC Daily chart as if it knows we have a looming U.S.… pic.twitter.com/l9Mm2SHyFu
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) September 30, 2023
“There is a high probability that killer whales will be amping up the weekend whale games around Daily, Weekly, and Monthly candle closes. Don’t get lured into a trap,” part of additional commentary from Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan read.
A snapshot of the BTC/USD order book on the largest global exchange Binance showed bid liquidity congregating around $26,800. Sellers meanwhile lay in wait at $27,500.
BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X
Others, such as popular trader Daan Crypto Trades, expected less volatile conditions until immediately before the new week.
“We’ve had volatility last week but open interest has cooled down so I doubt we’ll get any strange price action until maybe later on Sunday,” he told X subscribers on the day.
An accompanying chart showed the CME Group Bitcoin futures opening and closing prices potentially acting as a magnet for BTC spot price — a common phenomenon.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
