After rising about 80% in the first two quarters of 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) fell roughly 11% in the third quarter ending September. However, there is a silver lining for the bulls because they managed a positive monthly close in September, the first since 2016.
Buyers will try to build upon this momentum in October, which has a bullish track record. According to CoinGlass data, only 2014 and 2018 have produced negative monthly returns since 2013 in October. There is no guarantee that history will repeat itself but the data can be used as a good starting point to formulate strategies by traders.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
The recent strength in Bitcoin has also boosted interest in altcoins. Select altcoins are trying to break above their respective overhead resistance levels, indicating the start of a robust recovery. The bullish momentum could pick up further if Bitcoin extends its relief rally to $28,000.
Not all altcoins are expected to blast off to the upside. The cryptocurrencies that are showing strength are the ones that may lead the recovery higher. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that could outperform in the near term.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin has been trading above the moving averages since Sep. 28, which is a positive sign. This shows that the advantage is gradually tilting in favor of the buyers.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears are trying to stall the rally near $27,500 but the bulls have not given up much ground. This shows that every minor dip is being purchased. This increases the odds of a break above $27,500. The BTC/USDT pair could then retest the crucial overhead resistance at $28,143. This level may again attract aggressive selling by the bears.
If the price turns down sharply from $28,143, the pair could retest the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,630). A strong bounce off this level could kick the price above $28,143. The pair may subsequently climb to $30,000.
This bullish view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and dives below the solid support at $26,000.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is taking support at the 20-EMA. This indicates that the bulls are trying to take charge. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily and they will try to halt the recovery in the zone between $27,300 and $27,500. The sellers will then have to yank the price below the 20-EMA to seize control.
Conversely, if bulls pierce the overhead resistance at $27,500, it will pave the way for a possible rally to $28,143. This level may witness a tough battle between the buyers and sellers.
Maker price analysis
Maker (MKR) broke and closed above $1,370 on Sep. 26, indicating the start of a new uptrend. When an asset is in an uptrend, traders tend to buy on dips.
MKR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears tried to stall the up-move at $1,600 but the bulls purchased the dip at $1,432. This indicates that the sentiment remains positive and lower levels are being bought. If bulls propel the price above $1,600, the MKR/USDT pair could rally to $1,760 and then sprint to $1,909.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply and skids below $1,432, it could make room for a retest of the breakout level at $1,370. The bears will have to yank the price below this support to indicate that the uptrend may be over.
MKR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are fiercely protecting the overhead resistance at $1,600. If bulls want to keep their chances of continuing the uptrend alive, they will have to buy the dips to the 20-EMA.
If the price snaps back from the 20-EMA, the buyers will once again try to overcome the obstacle at $1,600 and start the next leg of the uptrend. Alternatively, a collapse to $1,432 and then to the 50-simple moving average may begin if the pair drops below the 20-EMA.
Aave price analysis
Aave (AAVE) is trying to break above the long-term downtrend line, indicating a potential trend change. The rebound off the 20-day EMA ($62.42) on Sep. 28 indicates a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
AAVE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to stall the recovery at the downtrend line but if bulls do not allow the price to slip back below the 20-day EMA, it will increase the likelihood of a break above it. The AAVE/USDT pair could thereafter start an up-move toward $88.
The 20-day EMA is the important support to watch on the downside. If this level cracks, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. That could pull the price down to the 50-day SMA ($58.82).
AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Both the upsloping 20-EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate that the bulls are in command. The rally may face selling at the downtrend line but the bulls will try to arrest the decline at the 20-EMA.
A strong rebound off the 20-EMA will open the doors for a possible rise above the downtrend line. The pair may first rally to $75 and next to $80. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below the 20-EMA to break the tempo.
Related: Crypto synthetic assets, explained
THORChain price analysis
THORChain (RUNE) has reached the overhead resistance at $2 for the third time within the past few days. The repeated retest of a resistance level tends to weaken it.
RUNE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, it will improve the prospects of a rally above $2. If that happens, the RUNE/USDT pair could first rise to $2.28 and subsequently to $2.78.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and plunges below the moving averages. Such a move will suggest that the bulls have given up and the pair may then drop to $1.37.
RUNE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are selling near the overhead resistance at $2 but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to skid and sustain below the 20-EMA. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.
If bulls push and maintain the price above $2, it will signal the start of a new uptrend. The pair could then surge toward $2.35. On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will indicate the start of a deeper correction to the 50-SMA.
Injective price analysis
Injective (INJ) has been swinging inside a large range between $5.40 and $10 for the past several days. The price action inside a range can be random and volatile but when the boundaries are far apart, trading opportunities may arise.
INJ/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. The INJ/USDT pair could first rise to $8.28 where the bears may mount a strong resistance. If bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could pick up momentum and soar toward $10.
If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to defend the overhead resistance and quickly drag the price below the moving averages. The pair could then retest the immediate support at $6.36.
INJ/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are sloping up on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is in the overbought territory, suggesting that the bulls have a slight edge. The rally could reach $8.28 which is likely to act as a strong hurdle.
On the downside, the first support is at the 20-EMA. A bounce off this level will indicate that the uptrend remains intact. Contrarily, a break below the 20-EMA will signal that the bulls are booking profits. That may pull the price down to the 50-SMA.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
