Bitcoin (BTC) saw a snap retest of $27,000 around the Oct. 6 Wall Street open as wildcard United States employment data rattled markets.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Analysis: Jobs data “not what Fed wanted to see”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price action as the largest cryptocurrency lost 2.1% in a single hourly candle.
A subsequent rebound saw bulls recover those losses, with $27,700 — the area of interest from before the data release — now back in focus.
The volatility came thanks to U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) jumping to almost double the number expected for September — 336,000 versus 170,000.
Demonstrating the labor market’s ongoing resilience to the Federal Reserve’s counterinflation measures in the form of interest rate hikes, the implications of the September result were nonetheless viewed as bad for risk assets — including crypto.
“Good news is bad news since the FED wants the labor market to lose strength,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in part of a response on X (formerly Twitter).
“Given this increase, it surprises me that the unemployment rate stayed the same (3.8%). So I believe that the data will be revised down and it’ll be much lower.”
Like others, CrypNuevo nonetheless eyed the increasing likelihood of another rate hike from the Fed at the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
“The market understands this data as a new threat for a potential new 25bsp hike in November 1st (25% probabilities given yesterday vs 31.3% probabilities today),” he continued, referencing data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“We have CPI on Thursday next week and that’ll hopefully give us a clearer view.” Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group
CPI, or the Consumer Price Index, forms one of the key inflation indicators for Fed policy.
Continuing, financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter suggested that pressure was now on both markets and the Fed itself.
“Furthermore, the Fed pause was previously expected until June 2024, now a pause is expected until July 2024,” it reported on market projections for rate tweaks.
“Market futures just fell 400+ points after the report. This is NOT what the Fed wanted to see.”
Bitcoin open interest drains
Looking at Bitcoin’s specific reaction, popular trader Skew showed spot and derivatives traders exiting on the NFP print.
Related: Bitcoin still beating US dollar versus ‘eggflation’ — Fed data
Spot sold & perps puked after the jump in NFP
shorts chasing a bit more here
Likely PvP for rest of the morning https://t.co/7faaQLfur5
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 6, 2023
“Slight probability shift on Nov 1 towards a hike but still unlikely,” a further prognosis for Fed action read.
“Would need to see FED tone & posturing first to weigh the probability.”
Updating analysis from earlier on Oct. 6, meanwhile, fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted declining Bitcoin open interest (OI).
Previously, this had hit levels that previously initiated spurts of upside followed by downside volatility.
“That’s another $600M in Open Interest lost since yesterday’s high. Getting to the more average and ‘healthy’ levels again,” he summarized.
BTC/USD chart with aggregated OI. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
